On Forbet today, Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona Copa del Rey preview sets up a fascinating semi-final clash between two sides defined by contrasting identities. Barcelona arrives in electric form under Hans-Dieter Flick, playing with rhythm and attacking precision. Atlético Madrid, guided by Diego Simeone, counter with discipline, defensive structure, and one of Europe’s most dependable home records.
It’s a meeting of momentum versus method and while the margins appear tight, the underlying numbers sketch a clearer picture.
Recent Form
Atlético Madrid’s recent form has been a bit of a balancing act. In their last six outings in all competitions, they’ve picked up two victories, shared the spoils twice, and suffered two defeats. Going forward, they’re averaging close to two goals per game, while remaining impressively tight at the back with less than a goal conceded per match.
Diego Simeone’s men continue to control large spells of possession, hovering around the 60% mark, and they aren’t shy in attack either, firing off about 15 attempts per fixture. The only concern? Their cutting edge in decisive moments hasn’t quite matched the build-up play.
Barcelona, in contrast, are riding a flawless wave. Six wins from their last six matches in all competitions tell the story of a team operating at peak confidence. They’ve averaged 3.17 goals scored and just 0.83 conceded per game during that run. Their attacking metrics are particularly striking: 22.33 shots per match, nine on target, and nearly 70% average possession (69.83%). This is sustained pressure coupled with ruthless execution and it has translated well in away fixtures.
Previous Meeting
The most recent encounter between these two sides came on December 2, 2025, when Barcelona secured a 3-1 victory. Although Atlético struck first through Álex Baena, Barcelona gradually asserted control.
They finished with 58% possession, 19 shots to Atlético’s 7, and six efforts on target compared to just two from the hosts. Raphinha and Dani Olmo shifted momentum before Ferran Torres sealed the result with a stoppage-time goal in the 96th minute. Barcelona also led in dangerous attacking sequences, 55 to 38.
The tactical lesson from that match was clear: once Atlético’s press was bypassed, Barcelona’s movement through the wings and half-spaces created repeated openings. Atlético were efficient early but struggled to sustain pressure. For this semi-final, sharper transitions and improved final-ball precision will be essential if they are to tilt the balance.
Overall Performance Trends
In Copa del Rey competition specifically, Atlético have won 21 of their last 35 matches and avoided defeat in 24 of their last 30. Impressively, 43% of those 30 games were victories by margins of two goals or more.
Barcelona’s broader record is even more commanding. They have won 14 of their last 15 matches in all competitions, averaging 2.67 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded. Away from home, they have secured 14 wins from their last 20 outings and remained undefeated in 16 of them. Over half of those away victories, 55% came by margins of two goals or more.
In Copa del Rey action, Barcelona have won 75% of their last 12 matches and gone unbeaten in 14 of their previous 15 in the competition. Across their last 20 cup games, 40% of their victories have been achieved by two or more goals.
Key Trends
The head-to-head record leans slightly toward Barcelona. Atlético have lost three of the last five meetings, and at home have suffered two defeats by two-goal margins in their last five clashes against the Catalans.
However, Atlético’s long-term home strength cannot be dismissed. Of their last 40 home wins in all competitions, 43% have come by margins of two goals or more. If they strike first, they possess the defensive discipline to turn momentum sharply in their favor.
Barcelona enters this tie on a six-match winning streak and have avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 matches overall. They have also kept clean sheets in 40% of their last 10 away games, a significant detail against an Atlético side that often thrives on limited chances.
Probable Lineups
Availability will influence selection decisions. Atlético are without the following players:
· Clément Lenglet
· Pablo Barrios
· Obed Vargas.
Barcelona will miss Gavi, Andreas Christensen, and Pedri.
Simeone is expected to maintain his trusted 4-4-2 structure, prioritizing compact lines and transition efficiency. Flick is likely to deploy a balanced 4-3-3 setup.
Atlético Madrid (4-4-2 likely XI):
Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak
Defenders:
· Dávid Hancko
· Nahuel Molina
· José María Giménez
· Matteo Ruggeri
Midfielders:
· Koke
· Thiago Almada
· Rodrigo Mendoza
· Álex Baena
Forwards: Antoine Griezmann and Julián Alvarez
Barcelona (4-3-3 likely XI):
Goalkeeper: Joan García
Defenders:
· Ronald Araujo
· João Cancelo
· Jules Koundé
· Alejandro Balde
Midfielders:
· Fermín López
· Frenkie de Jong
· Dani Olmo
Forwards: Ferran Torres, Lamine Yamal, and Robert Lewandowski
Prediction
This semi-final presents a compelling contrast. Barcelona’s attacking volume, recent dominance, and slight head-to-head edge meet Atlético’s formidable home record and impressive Copa del Rey pedigree.
Analytical projections give Barcelona approximately a 38% probability of securing victory in regular time, reflecting a competitive but narrow margin.
Projected result: Atlético Madrid 0-1 Barcelona.
